France In Crisis: Mounting Debt and Political Paralysis

The Issue

On September 8th , 2025, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou was ousted by his own motion of non-confidence. Bayrou’s expulsion marked the fourth time a prime minister has been ousted or left within the past two years, making France’s debt issue even more pressing. Since June 2024, the French parliament has struggled to pass any bill, let alone a budget, that supports austerity, primarily due to a lack of political consensus in parliament. In an attempt to solve the issue, Bayrou passed his own motion of confidence to gauge parliament’s trust in him. Had he won, which he did not, he would have had the backing to pass a budget. After losing the vote, Bayrou’s government collapsed, leaving France’s debt problem unsolved.

How and Why the Political Deadlock Occurred

Currently, France’s parliament is deeply divided among three camps on the political left, right and center. The polarizing divide came because of a July 2024 election that was called by Macron after his party suffered a defeat by the right-wing National Rally party and left-wing Collective Leadership party. The July elections ultimately divided parliamentary powers evenly, which has continued to hinder progress and agreement on a new budget.

The Debt Problem

Despite the common misconception that France’s current debt situation is a recent issue, its roots stretch far back. The entire country has been running in a budget deficit since the mid-1970’s, meaning its national spending has outpaced its revenue for the last 50 years. These budget deficits occur due to a multitude of factors, which include the government’s increased expenditures on company subsidies and social benefits such as pensions to care for the country’s aging population.

Unfortunately, recent events have only exacerbated France’s pre-existing monetary problems; government spending across the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 global pandemic, and the 2022 energy crisis forced the government to spend money to bail out the economy, which only served to push it into further debt. Additionally, during the Eurozone debt crisis, France had its credit rating cut to AA+, which forced the country to pay higher prices to service its debt. All of the above factors have increased France’s debt-to-GDP ratio from approximately 80% in 2010, increasing to 114% in 2025 (5) . Bayrou attempted to solve the debt issue by proposing a two-pronged approach, which called for increasing productivity while decreasing spending. In an attempt to increase productivity, Bayrou proposed cutting two of France’s 11 holidays. Then, to decrease expenditures, he proposed cutting public service jobs and reducing social benefits. The proposal was met with a strong amount of criticism by both the public and other members of parliament. The notion of cutting public holidays was considered an attack on the working class, which was ultimately reflected in Bayrou’s eventual motion of no confidence.

The National Rally, which was opposed to Bayrou’s proposal, suggested that instead of cutting services within their own nation, France should reduce contributions to the European Union, halt investments in green power, and reduce the size of its internal government (3) . Alternatively, the Socialist party argues that the solution lies simply in increasing taxes on France’s wealthiest citizens (4) .

The Current and Future Challenges That France Faces

One of the major obstacles preventing France from tackling its debt problem is its societal and political division, reflected by its most recently elected prime minister, Sebastien Lecornu. Lecornu resigned from office on the 6 th of October 2025, which was less than one month after being selected by Macron to serve as prime minister. His resignation was largely due to his inability to form a consensus within his government, something Bayrou also struggled with. From the first day of being elected, he was seen as a highly unpopular choice because he held many of the same beliefs as Bayrou when it came to tackling France’s debt problem. Four days later, however, Lecornu would be reappointed to the position on October 10 th . If Lecornu were to resign once again, he would leave Macron in a very difficult position. The future of France's government would be left with three main choices: (1) Macron can elect a new prime minister to try to bring consensus on the debt issue, something that he has already done, which hasn’t worked. (2) Macron can call a snap election in the lower house to try and break the political deadlock, an unlikely solution to function given the political deadlock that has been apparent in the polls. (3) Macron resigns as France’s president, allowing for a new election to occur. Macron has, however, stated that he is not looking to step down as president. Given that Macron is viewed as a highly unfavourable political figure in the public eye, it may be to France’s benefit if he resigned from office. This would have the potential to increase votes for Macron’s Renaissance party, ultimately resulting in more power to make decisions that could finally resolve France’s debt problem.

Conclusion

France’s debt crisis is no longer purely a fiscal challenge, but a challenge that has devolved into a profound crisis of political governance. The tumultuous and brief tenure of prime ministers like Bayrou and Lecornu, followed by Lecornu's difficult reappointment, perfectly illustrates the nation’s crippling social and political division, which has rendered consensus on austerity and reform virtually impossible. In the immediate future, France’s ability to service its debt and secure its economic stability hinges less on economic theory and more on its leader’s capacity to bridge large ideological differences. Until the political will and public support come together to break the deadlock, the shadow of unmanaged national debt will continue to haunt French society.

References

Caulcutt, C. (2025, September 4). French Socialists confirm they'll oust PM, push for center-left replacement. Politico.eu. https://www.politico.eu/article/olivier-faure-french-socialist-pm-francois-bayrou-minority-government/

French economy shrinks as political crisis eclipses Olympic boost. (2025, January 30). France 24. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250130-french-economy-shrinks-as-political-crisis-eclipses-olympic boost

Kirby, P. (2025, August 26). French PM Bayrou fights for survival as rivals refuse support in vote of confidence. BBC. Retrieved October 13, 2025, from https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1le1m48mr6o

Why far-right National Rally dropped Bayrou and is calling for snap elections. (2025, October 9). RFI. https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20250910-why-far-right-national-rally-dropped-bayrou-and-is-calling-for-snap-elections

France debt to GDP ratio: Historical Chart & Data. France Debt to GDP Ratio | Historical Chart & Data. (n.d.). https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/fra/france/debt-to-gdp-ratio